Rates, Gold, and A Big-ol... Bubble?

1) RATES – DOJ serves Powell and the Fed with grand jury subpoenas and potential criminal indictment.  That’s the headline media will chase today.  Dumb.  The Bond Market doesn’t really care as the 10YR, 20YR, and 30YR Yields are all bullish TREND, but down a significant amount from where they were a year ago (4.79% to 4.18%: 10YR).  The MOVE Index (bond volatility) is still bearish TREND, failing at that level again on Friday.  Markets in general like controlled bond vol.  Maybe Trump set this up knowing tomorrow’s CPI is going to surprise the Fed to the downside.  I’ve been writing about Goldilocks in Q1 for a bit now.  Goldilocks is inflation decelerating and growth accelerating.

2) SP500:GOLD – Looking at various markets through the lens of “ratios” is helpful. Especially when looking at major items like the S&P 500 and Gold, this could be a very important ratio to watch. If the S&P 500 breaks down against Gold, the environment we have found ourselves in for the last decade could very easily change. Why? It could signal a major shift lower in risk appetite.

3) BUBBLE? – If this is a bubble, I want a refund! Businessweek is out with a cover warning investors to "Beware the Bubble" and teaching you how to "survive" the year ahead, as if investing has suddenly turned into some kind of apocalyptic endurance test. This is a real magazine. With real writers. Publishing real fear. Journalists play a very specific role in markets. When people start screaming "bubble," we don't argue. We count. We look at participation. We measure trends. We check confirmations. We look at the flows. These “journalists” want this to be 1999. They need it to be 1999. But markets don't care what anyone needs. This isn't a knock on journalists or the journalism community. Quite the opposite. We appreciate the work they do and the effort it takes to produce these stories. But when journalists start telling you markets are in a bubble, history suggests that it’s often the opposite. The last time I wrote about a magazine cover like this was back in November. The Economist ran one showing a skier upside down in the snow, skis turned into red downward arrows. The headline was "How Markets Could Topple the Economy." This wasn't during a market peak. It wasn't during a crash. It was in the middle of a bull market. Yet there they were, warning that markets were about to topple the economy. The lesson is to fade the crowd led by mainstream media. Markets did not topple the economy. They did and are doing the exact opposite. Bottom line…this is not a bubble. What we've lived through instead are three major corrections or bear markets in a single decade, and we're only halfway through it as we begin 2026.