The Melt-Up Pauses, the Engine Keeps Running

1.)  GOLD – After an epic melt-up to new all-time highs, Gold is now taking on the fractal pattern it did back in October.  Back on Oct 16, Gold volatility (GVZ) hit 33.  It closed yesterday at 28.11, up 7%.  As Gold volatility rose to 33 in Oct, it set up a consolidation that took two months to complete.  Those were buying opportunities as Gold volatility settled down and decelerated from those Oct highs.  Depending on how volatility acts this time, we could easily get another round of consolidation that is buyable.  The difference from Oct to now is that Gold is not overbought yet, whereas in Oct it was.  What does that mean?  That if a consolidation/digestion of gains occurs, it may not be as deep as it was from Oct to Dec.  Gold at $4790 would be the first area of support for it to test.

2.)  TECH – Technology stocks are still going higher, just not the ones everyone keeps pointing at.  While familiar leaders have been stuck, and the Nasdaq 100 hasn't made a new high since October, tech has simply rotated.  On an equal-weighted basis (RSPT), technology continues to make new highs.   That's not weakness. That's strength. And, more importantly, it's broadening participation within the technology sector.  That's how healthy markets behave. Leadership expands. It doesn't disappear.  Large-cap tech may not be “leading” at the moment, but it’s not giving signs of distribution either.  If this index were breaking down, we’d see RSI (relative strength/momentum) collapsing into oversold territory.  It’s not.  That tells me that the market has gotten stronger beneath the surface, not weaker.  So, you have to ask, if the rest of the tech market hasn’t broken down while the “big guys” (NVDA, MSFT, AAPL, etc.) consolidate, what happens if the Microsoft's, the Apples, and the Nvidia's of the world start pushing higher again?  That's upside fuel.   

3.)  GDP – The Atlanta Fed's latest estimate of real GDP in Q4 2025 is now 5.4%.  Q1 2026 is still signaling “Goldilocks”.