Is History Repeating (Again!) For Bitcoin?

1.) ENERGY – Is history being made? The energy sector looks alive again. The last time energy stocks got anywhere near these prices was back in 2008. That was 18 years ago. Since then, we’ve had four different presidents, a financial crisis, a global pandemic, wars, an oil crash, even a brief moment when the price of crude went below zero! Through all of it, energy stocks could never get back above their old highs. Until now. This would be a “breakout.” Imagine a ceiling that a stock keeps bumping its head against. It tries to get through, but every time it gets close, sellers show up to push it back down. One of two things happens: either it falls away or breaks through that ceiling. Energy just broke through a ceiling that’s been there since 2008. That’s not insignificant. The sector is currently slightly overbought. But after a breakout like this, that just means that the sector is likely more buyable on dips. WTI crude is currently putting in a lower high right near the top of its trend.

2.) FLOWS – As you know, flows of money from some of the biggest funds (CTAs, Volatility Control Funds, etc.) in the system are important to track. Of course, we have to also add mutual funds and ETFs (exchange-traded funds) to that list of big money flows. And right now, fund flows are robust for equity funds, bond funds, and ETFs. They are at levels now exceeding 2021.

3.) BITCOIN – I don’t comment on Bitcoin very often, but I know many of you are not only interested in it but also owners of the cryptocurrency. Bitcoin has had a terrible year. But since its inception, Bitcoin has followed this “4-year cycle” where it would be in a bull market and peak about every 1,064 days, then go through a bear phase and drop in value for about 364 days. Does that seem weird? Yes, it does, and yes, it is. Yet this same cycle has repeated from 2015 to 2017 (about a 1,064-day bull market); 2017 to 2018 (about a 364-day bear market); 2018 to 2021 (about a 1,064-day bull market); 2021 to 2022 (about a 364-day bear market); and 2022 to 2025 (about a 1,064-day bull market). The most recent peak came in Oct 2025. So Oct 2026 would be about that same 364-day bear market. I know it sounds crazy to think that the repetitiveness of these cycles is that accurate and predictable. But here we are. Add to this how large speculators act around historical Bitcoin cycle lows. We can track that via CME Bitcoin large speculators. They remain near-record long (buyers). Right now, net positioning is 18.2% of open interest, which is just below June's 20.6% record. Similar extremes have appeared around major longer-term Bitcoin lows. Will the cycle repeat as it has in the past? I have no idea. But I’m not willing to fight against the cycle for this thing either. Will that “4-year cycle” break at some point? Probably. But I have no idea if OR when. So, for now, we could very well see a Bitcoin low occurring sometime between now and maybe the October/November timeframe.